All About Armenia And Azerbaijan Conflict

What is happening?

  • Recently, Armenia announced it was declaring martial law, mobilising its army and ordering civilians to shelter. 
  • It claimed its neighbour Azerbaijan had launched a military operation inside a disputed region called Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan said it attacked only in response to Armenian shelling.
  • Nagorno-Karabakh is recognised internationally as Azerbaijan’s territory but has a mostly Armenian population who have resisted Azerbaijani rule for more than a century.
  • In 1991 the region declared independence and since then it has ruled itself – with Armenian support – as the unrecognised Republic of Artsakh.
  • Recently, Forces from Nagorno-Karabakh along with the Armenian military have been fighting Azerbaijani troops, armour and aircraft. 
  • Azerbaijan has claimed to have taken territory inside Nagorno-Karabakh, a claim the Armenians dispute.

What’s the background?

  • Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous, landlocked region inside the borders of Azerbaijan, has been a source of dispute since before the creation of the Soviet Union. 
  • Tensions were suppressed when both Armenia and Azerbaijan were Soviet states, but they re-emerged as the cold war ended and Communist party control of the bloc dissolved.
  • A war between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces ended in a ceasefire in 1994, with Armenia in full control of Nagorno-Karabakh and other smaller enclaves of Azerbaijan’s territory.
  • Azerbaijan is majority Muslim and Armenia is majority Christian.

Why are they fighting now?

  • An Armenian revolution in 2016 ushered in a new generation of leadership and raised hopes that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict could move towards resolution.
  • Those aspirations have since dwindled, with Armenia’s prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, taking a firm line on the issue similar to his predecessor’s.
  • With the Covid-19 pandemic taking a toll on the price of Azerbaijani oil and gas, it may be that its rulers have decided now is a good time to act.
  • Turkey has already declared its staunch support for Azerbaijan, while Russia is traditionally closer to Armenia, though its ties with Azerbaijani elites have grown. 
  • The two countries have been jostling for influence in different theatres around the world including in Syria and Libya. 
  • Armenia has claimed that Turkey is sending Syrian fighters into the area to fight on Azerbaijan’s side, though there is not yet strong evidence for this.
  • The wider South Caucasus is a crucial artery for gas and oil from Azerbaijan into Turkey and on to Europe and other world markets. 
  • Azerbaijan supplies about 5% of Europe’s gas and oil demands (helping to reduce the EU’s dependence on Russia), and fighting in 2016 came close to a number of these pipelines.

Ending Conflict in the Caucasus

  • The Madrid Principles are one of the proposed peace settlements of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
  • The original version of the principles was presented to the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers at the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) ministerial conference in the Spanish capital Madrid in November 2007.
  • They originated from a revised version of the peace settlement proposal unveiled by the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries (France, Russia and the United States) in the early summer of 2006.
  • In 2009 at the urging of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen the Madrid Principles were updated.
  • According to that statement, the Basic Principles for the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are based on the Helsinki Final Act (1975) principles of Non-Use of Force, Territorial Integrity, and the Equal Rights and Self-Determination of Peoples.

The above-mentioned document also revealed six key elements for the settlement:

  • Return of the territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijani control;
  • An interim status for Nagorno-Karabakh providing guarantees for security and self-governance;
  • A corridor linking Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh;
  • Future determination of the final legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh through a legally binding expression of will;
  • The right of all internally displaced persons and refugees to return to their former places of residence; and
  • International security guarantees that would include a peacekeeping operation.